Bear Markets
The appraisal of common stocks as an investment vehicle during the years of mid 1946 to 1949 turned out to be outstandingly incorrect. Most of the earnings of companies during this time were very good, nonetheless in agreement with the current
appraisalsof the time, stocks were selling at the lowest price earnings ratios than they had in a good number of years. It was said that these earnings did not mean anything and that they were simply momentary and that they would decrease very much or completely disappear in the
depressionthat needed to come. It was considered that that the Civil War has been followed by the alarm that occurred in 1873 that manifested the commencement of a very harsh depression that went on until 1879. After
World War I, an even more severe crash occurred in 1929 followed by another six years of big time depression. Due to the fact that World War II had implicated an even bigger exertion and due to that even more of an alteration of the economy than in World War I, it was thought that an even larger bear market and an worse depression were on its way. During the time that this appraisal existed, most stocks were so cheap that when it started to dawn on the investment community that this was actually an inaccurate view and that depression was actually not going to occur, the floor has been set for on one of the most lengthy times of increasing stock prices in the history of the United States.
Every since the bear market that occurred in 1972 to 1974 transported along with it the only other stage in the century when most price earnings ratios were around as low as they were during 1949 to 1949. With this in mind one cannot help but ask themselves about the soundness of the appraisals of the financial community that made this occur. Does this mean that the fears are bringing about historically low price earnings ratio valid? Does this mean that there will be another 1946 to 1949 once over again?
There is one major difference between the factors that bring about changes in the universal level of all stock prices and the ones that have an effect on the relative price earnings ratio of one stock in contrast to another one inside that general level. As has already been mentioned, the factors that at any certain time have an effect on the relative price earnings ratio of one stock to another are simply issues of the actual view in the investment community of the specific company and the specific industry that the company would belong to. Nonetheless the level of stocks as a whole is not only an issue of image but comes about to a certain extent from the current appraisal of the financial community and in some ways from a specific economic factor from the world as it actually is.
